Assumption maps
Clear identification of the beliefs the concept depends on.
LABS / EXPERIMENT TYPE 05
Concept Validation.
Challenge the assumption that could kill the idea before the expensive part begins.
We design validation experiments around the riskiest product, workflow, technical or audience assumptions so teams can make stronger go, change or stop decisions.
When belief needs evidence before commitment.
Concept validation is not a guarantee that an idea will succeed. It is a disciplined attempt to find the evidence that should change whether and how the idea proceeds.
Start with
the uncertainty.
- A team likes an idea but cannot explain which assumption makes it risky.
- The technical build could be expensive before demand or workflow is understood.
- Users may not behave the way the product concept expects.
- A business process may not support the proposed system in practice.
- A new channel, feature or experience needs evidence before scaling.
- Stakeholders need a decision framework rather than another opinion.
Only enough
to find out.
Validation prototypes
Small experiences designed to test a behavior, workflow or value proposition.
Feasibility tests
Technical experiments around the assumptions with the highest implementation risk.
Workflow trials
Controlled tests of whether a proposed process works in real operating conditions.
Evidence reviews
Structured interpretation of what the experiment actually supports.
Go / change / stop decisions
A practical next-step decision based on the evidence gathered.
Evidence changes direction.
The experiment
Evidence changes direction
An honest stop is as useful as a justified next step.
Assumption
State the belief that matters most.
An uncertain proposition passes through evidence and separates into three legitimate decisions: keep, change or stop. No outcome is preselected as success.
A method,
not a guess.
- 01
LIST ASSUMPTIONS
Write down what must be true for the concept to work.
- 02
RANK RISK
Identify which assumption would most change the direction if it fails.
- 03
DESIGN THE TEST
Choose the smallest experiment capable of producing useful evidence.
- 04
RUN
Test under conditions close enough to reality to matter.
- 05
INTERPRET
Separate evidence from confirmation bias and anecdote.
- 06
DECIDE
Proceed, revise or stop with a clearer reason than intuition alone.
What we learn.
What we use.
Tools serve the question. They are not a fixed stack or a promise of an outcome.
Evidence to collect
- Risk map
- Validation test
- Observed evidence
- Failure evidence
- Decision criteria
- Go / change / stop
Experiment materials
- Prototypes
- Interviews
- Analytics
- Technical spikes
- Workflow trials
- Structured evaluation
Stop↗
The evidence says the idea should stop here.
Iterate↗
The question became clearer, but another experiment is justified.
Graduate↗
The idea earned a path into a permanent Yard or product.
Validation is successful when it makes the next decision less naive.
Good questions
come first.
Can you prove an idea will succeed?
No. Validation can reduce uncertainty and challenge assumptions, but it cannot eliminate future market or execution risk.
Do all concepts need user testing?
No. The highest-risk assumption might be technical, operational or commercial rather than behavioral.
What happens if evidence is weak?
Weak evidence should usually lead to another focused test or a more conservative decision rather than false certainty.
Can validation happen before design?
Yes. Some assumptions should be tested before investing heavily in detailed design.
Can the result be to stop?
Yes. Avoiding an unjustified build can be one of the most valuable outcomes.
Can a validated concept move directly into another Yard?
Yes, when the remaining uncertainty is low enough to justify a production plan.